California Governor Gavin Newsom called for support for Proposition 1 on the March 5, 2024 ballot during a press conference at Los Angeles General Medical Center on Wednesday, January 3, 2023. The proposal would overhaul California’s mental health funding system, with a $6.4 billion bond to expand access for hundreds of thousands of Californians, fund substance abuse treatment, and address the mental health crisis. It will help get people in distress off the streets and into care. (Photo by Hans Gutknecht, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s $6.4 billion mental health bond held a narrow lead as of March 7, but final results were still too close for the Secretary of State to release updated voting results Thursday afternoon. Ta.
At the time, 50.2% of voters supported Proposition 1 and 49.8% opposed it. It may take several days or even weeks to see the final results.
See the latest election results.
Most of the other major races relevant to Los Angeles County voters have a clear winner or two candidates heading to a runoff in November.
In the Los Angeles County District Attorney race, progressive incumbent George Gascón is poised to face tough-on-crime former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman. The U.S. Senate race is poised to be a partisan showdown between Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank, and Republican Rep. Steve Garvey, a former Dodger.
Incumbent Holly Mitchell, Janice Hahn, and Kathryn Berger all held firm majorities in three races for the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors. This means they can secure their seats in the primaries and avoid having to run in the general election.
Now the only race to watch is Proposition 1, which is worth noting.
The measure would allocate $4.4 billion to fund 10,000 psychiatric beds and $2 billion for homeless housing projects, with half of that money set aside for veterans with mental illness and substance use issues. is. Additionally, counties would be required to spend 30% of their revenue from the Mental Health Services Act on housing.
Newsom touted the measure as a way to “get people off the streets, out of tents and into treatment.” The Yes on Prop 1 campaign has raised approximately $21 million and is supported by many influential organizations, including the California National Alliance on Mental Illness, the California Teachers Association, and the California Chamber of Commerce.
By comparison, the “No to Proposition 1” campaign raised very little. The group is led by mental health advocacy groups such as Disability Rights California, who believe that changes in funding priorities in the Mental Health Services Act will lead to cuts in services and that new treatment beds will displace people. They are concerned about forcing voluntary treatment. Other opponents, such as the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, oppose large government spending.
Unless there are significant changes in the voting patterns of ballots that have yet to be counted, the proposal is likely to pass by a narrow margin, but it is not certain.
It is true that there is not as much margin as there was in the initial preliminary investigation.
Voter support for the proposal likely fell from 68% to 59% between December and February, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll. On election night, it came dangerously close to falling short of the simple majority threshold needed for passage.
Election experts say the drop in approval ratings is partly due to typical voting patterns and partly due to ongoing protests.
Jamie Regalado, professor emeritus of political science at California State University, Los Angeles, said bond initiatives often lose momentum as elections approach.
“If you have some distance to the election, say months, six months,[bond measures]sound great,” he said. “But as we get closer to the election, and for some there is a question mark over the economy, or in this case, the huge budget deficit that California could be facing, voters are turning to proposals like They tend to be more apathetic about voting because they feel it could be costly and worsen the state’s fiscal woes. ”
Furthermore, the demographics of key voters may be influencing the bill’s lack of support.
Fernando Guerra, a professor of political science and Chicana/Latino studies at Loyola Marymount, said primary election turnout typically skews older and more conservative, while general election turnout skews younger and more conservative. of voters are more likely to vote. University.
“Mr. Newsom had the option of introducing the proposal in November, which would have been easier to pass, but he chose this because he believed he could dominate the airwaves.” “That decision almost cost him dearly.”
Finally, Guerra said the No Proposition 1 campaign didn’t have a lot of money, but it had a message that resonated on both ends of the political spectrum. The argument that the proposal could fund involuntary treatment for the mentally ill resonated with liberal voters, while the argument that the proposal would irresponsibly increase government spending resonated with conservative voters. It resonated with me.
