Governor Gavin Newsom speaks in support of Proposition 1 during a press conference at the National Domestic Workers Center in San Diego, February 29, 2024. Photo: Kristian Carreon for CalMatters
Two months ago, polls suggested Gov. Gavin Newsom didn’t need to do much to convince voters to pass his flagship mental health package. His plan to issue $6.4 billion in bonds to build new treatment beds and housing received support from about two-thirds of voters.
But now, as voters cast their votes and recent polls show enthusiasm for his proposal waning, Newsom is scrambling around the state to debate Proposition 1.
“The polling on this is overwhelmingly positive, but the polls don’t vote, the people vote,” Newsom said Thursday at a get-out-the-vote rally in San Diego. “We’re here to get people to the polls.”
The rally with the union United Domestic Workers, Attorney General Rob Bonta and other elected Democrats was the first of four campaign events planned by Newsom before Election Day on March 5. Ta. Other destinations include Palm Springs, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Statewide, about 10% of all ballots are returned by mail just four days before the election. Analysts say the trend indicates turnout in Tuesday’s presidential primary will be the lowest in the state’s recent history.
Two polls released by the Public Policy Institute of California found that support for Prop. 1 dropped from 68% to 59% among likely voters from December to February, a 9-point difference. . Democratic and independent voters overwhelmingly supported the measure, but most Republican voters indicated they intended to vote against it.
The bill requires 51% support for passage.
Proposition 1 is a two-part ballot initiative to restructure California’s mental health and substance abuse treatment system. This includes deposits to build treatment facilities and permanent supportive housing for people with mental health and addiction issues. It would also change the special wealth tax known as the Mental Health Services Act, requiring counties to spend 30% of their revenue on housing instead of other services.
Governor Gavin Newsom’s mental health policy
Newsom proposed Proposition 1 to voters as a way to address the state’s persistent homelessness crisis and significantly increase acute mental health and drug treatment capacity. His “Yes on Proposition 1” campaign saw him raise a $14.4 million war chest and garner support from law enforcement unions, large health care organizations, big city mayors, and the mental health advocacy group NAMI California.
California has failed to fulfill its promise to expand community-based mental health care for decades, after closing nearly all state psychiatric hospitals in the 1960s. Proposition 1 is an opportunity for voters to fix that failure, Newsom said.
During his time in office, Newsom signed several laws aimed at addressing the mental health crisis on California’s streets, including easing restrictions on involuntary treatment last year. It also includes the law.
“People understand it and they want to get something done,” Newsom said at a rally of about 100 union members and first responders. “They don’t want to talk about this issue anymore. They want to see progress.”
The Yes on Proposition 1 campaign estimates that the money raised from this bond could build 6,800 treatment slots and 4,350 housing units.
Proposal 1 Opponents point out deficit
Opponents represent small mental health organizations, disability advocacy groups and current clients of the county’s mental health programs who are concerned about budget cuts if the bill passes. They believe the decline in support for the proposal is due in part to concerns about the state’s surging budget deficit.
The nonpartisan Legislative Analysis Service predicted in early February that the state’s deficit would widen to $73 billion, $15 billion more than last month’s projections.
Bonds allow countries to borrow money and pay it back over time. The Legislative Analysis Service estimates that Proposition 1 will cost the state $310 million annually over the next 30 years, for a total cost of $9.4 billion.
Paul Simmons, executive director of Californians Against Prop. 1, said in a recent campaign statement that “informed voters know that this means this is the worst possible time for Prop. 1. “
Newsom previously disputed how deep the state’s budget deficit would be in June, when lawmakers are legally required to pass a budget. At Thursday’s rally, Newsom suggested the latest budget could come from state reserves. The administration estimated in January that the state had about $38 billion in reserves.
“We’ve never had greater reserves in our state’s history, so this issue will be resolved in the coming months,” Newsom said.
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