JERUSALEM — The war between Israel and Hamas appears to have become much less deadly for Palestinian women and children, according to an Associated Press analysis of Gaza Health Ministry data.
This change is significant because the mortality rates of women and children are the best indicators of civilian casualties in one of the most devastating conflicts of the 21st century.
Women and children made up less than 40 percent of those killed in Gaza in April, down from more than 60 percent in October, a decline that coincides with a change in Israeli battlefield tactics and contradicts the ministry’s own public statements.
Here are some key points from the Associated Press report:
Mortality trends and war tactics
After the Hamas attack on October 7, Israel launched heavy air strikes on densely populated Gaza, followed by an invasion by thousands of ground troops supported by tanks and artillery.
Of the 6,745 deaths fully identified by the Ministry of Health by the end of October, women and people under the age of 17 accounted for 64%.
The Israeli military said it had achieved many of its key objectives and began withdrawing its ground forces earlier this year, focusing more recently on drone strikes and limited ground operations.
As fighting becomes less intense, the death toll continues to rise, but the rate of increase is slowing and fewer civilians appear to be caught in the crossfire. Women and children accounted for 38 percent of confirmed deaths in April, according to the latest Health Ministry data.
A Tale of Two Dead People
The ministry announces new war death tolls almost daily, and regularly publishes the data behind these figures, including detailed lists of those killed.
The AP analysis examined the lists that were shared on social media in late October, early January, late March and late April.
As recently as March, the Health Ministry claimed for several days that 72% of deaths were women and children, although underlying data suggested the proportion was much lower.
Israeli leaders say the discrepancies are evidence the State Department is inflating the numbers for political gain.
Experts say the reality is more complicated, with the Defense Department overwhelmed by the war and struggling to track casualties.
Civilian deaths fuel criticism of Israel
The actual casualties in Gaza could have serious implications.
Israel has faced intense international criticism over the unprecedented levels of civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip, raising questions about whether it has done enough to prevent casualties in an eight-month war that shows no signs of ending. Health officials said dozens of Palestinians were killed in airstrikes in Rafah last month, and at least 33 people, including 12 women and children, were killed Thursday in an airstrike on a school-turned-shelter in central Gaza.
Two international courts in The Hague are examining charges that Israel committed war crimes and genocide against Palestinians, charges Israel vigorously denies.
Israel says it has tried to avoid civilian casualties, ordering mass evacuations ahead of a fierce military operation that has forced some 80% of Gaza’s residents to flee, and has accused Hamas of deliberately putting civilians at risk as human shields.
Because the Ministry of Health does not publish figures for combatant deaths, the fate of women and children is a key indicator of civilian casualties, but it is not a perfect indicator: many civilian men have also been killed, and young men in their late teens may have been caught up in the fighting.
Many of the dead counted in Gaza remain ‘unidentified’
The ministry said on April 30 that 34,622 people had died in the war. The AP analysis was based on 22,961 people who the Health Ministry had fully identified at the time by name, sex, age and Israeli-issued ID number.
According to the ministry, 9,940 of the deaths (29% of the total deaths as of April 30) are not included in the data because they remain “unidentified,” including bodies that have not been claimed by their families, bodies that have decomposed beyond recognition, and bodies whose records were lost in Israeli military raids on hospitals.
Another 1,699 records from the department’s April data were incomplete and 22 were duplicates that were excluded from AP’s analysis.
Records show that the percentage of women and children killed among those who were fully identified has steadily decreased from 64 percent in late October to 62 percent in early January, 57 percent at the end of March, and 54 percent at the end of April.
Some critics say the Health Ministry’s imprecise methodology, which relies on family members and “media reports” to confirm deaths, introduces further uncertainty into the figures.
The Health Ministry says it has made great efforts to collect information accurately, but that the war has hindered its ability to count and identify the dead.
Ministry of Health stands by its statistics
Dr. Moatasem Salah, director of the ministry’s emergency center, denied Israeli claims that the ministry had deliberately inflated or manipulated the death toll.
“This is an insult to the humanity of all the people here,” he said. “We are not numbers… We are all human souls here.”
He claimed 70 percent of the victims were women and children and said the overall death toll was far higher than reported, with thousands still missing or believed to be buried in rubble.
Israel last month sharply criticised the UN for using data from Hamas’s Media Office, the militant group’s propaganda arm, to report a higher number of women and children killed, which the UN later revised down to match the Health Ministry figures.
It is also unclear how many Hamas fighters were killed in the fighting. Hamas keeps this information a closely guarded secret, but senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya told The Associated Press in late April that Hamas had lost fewer than 20 percent of its fighters. Based on Israeli pre-war estimates, the number was roughly 6,000.
The Israeli army has not disputed the death toll given by the Palestinian ministry, but claims the number of combatants killed is much higher – around 15,000, or more than 40 percent of the total. The army has not presented any evidence to support this claim and declined to comment on the matter.
Michael Spagat, a London-based economics professor and president of Every Casualty Counts, a nonprofit that tracks armed conflict, said he continues to have confidence in the Health Ministry and believes it is doing the best it can under difficult circumstances.
“I think (the data) is becoming more and more flawed,” he said, but added that “the flaws don’t necessarily change the whole picture.”
